Gold is going to hit $8,000 by 2031, Deutsche Bank predicts. Why the world is distracted by this precious metal now

Laura BoastFri, May 1, 2026 at 9:05 AM UTC

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a one-ounce gold bar, a gold nugget, and gold coins are displayed at Witter Coins on October 07, 2025 in San Francisco, California.

If you thought gold's run in the past five years was extraordinary, delivering a 177% return (1), brace yourself for the next five.

Since 2020, the value of gold has soared (2) from $1,585 per ounce to more than $4,500 per ounce.

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Now, German investment bank Deutsche Bank predicts it will nearly double to $8,000 per ounce by 2031.

In a research note published April 27, Deutsche Bank strategist Mallika Sachdeva and research analyst Michael Hsuah observed that China, Russia, India and Turkey and central banks in emerging markets are all stockpiling (3) gold.

This includes central banks in Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

As The Northern Miner reports (4), since the 2008 financial crisis, these central banks have collectively increased their total bullion reserves to more than 225 million oz.

According to the Deutsche Bank's modelling (5), if their collective gold holdings hit 40% of total reserves, gold could hit $8,000 an ounce.

In other words, demand from these institutional buyers is driving gold prices higher. Here's why they're stockpiling the precious metal.

Researchers predict a new world order with gold on top

Sachdeva and Hsuah observed a common thread among many of the countries stockpiling gold: vulnerability to Western trade sanctions.

They argue that at the very same time these countries' central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, they've been reducing their U.S. dollar reserves as a way to achieve independence from those sanctions.

"The dollar banking system has been weaponized," Sachdeva and Hsuah write.

The researchers predict a new world order in which gold — not the U.S. dollar — will be the monetary anchor.

The trend toward central banks increasing their bullion reserves is certainly not slowing.

Last year, the World Gold Council surveyed (6) central banks around the world about their intention to buy gold. As Mining.com (7) reports, 76% said they planned to increase their gold reserves in the next five years and a similar number (73%) said they'd be reducing their U.S. dollar reserves.

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The majority said buying gold was a good way to hedge against the impact of interest rates, inflation and geopolitical instability. So if central banks are doing it, should you?

Read More: Almost 50 with no retirement savings? Here’s why you shouldn’t panic

Gold prices are not guaranteed

It's one thing to invest in bullion as an institutional investor like a central bank and quite another to do so as an individual.

Even as experts at Wells Fargo and Deutsche Bank call for gold to hit $8,000 an ounce, there's no guarantee that will happen.

In fact, the very geopolitical tensions that make gold attractive to central banks also make it a risky investment. For example, in March, gold posted its worst monthly drop in more than a decade, sliding nearly 11% amid geopolitical tensions tied to the U.S.-Iran war.

That's why it's important to weigh the value of gold in your overall investment portfolio.

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio recommends a 5% to 15% allocation of gold in an investment portfolio. Sprott Asset Management suggests (8) 10% to 15%.

You don't have to invest in solid coins or bars; you can opt for gold ETFs, mining stocks or gold-backed funds.

It's a good idea to talk to a financial advisor to determine the right balance in the context of your own portfolio and near- and long-term goals.

And even if many of the world's central banks are reducing their reserves of the U.S. dollar, it's worth noting that the greenback is still the world's primary reserve currency.

It's always wise to have your own U.S. dollar reserves — in the form of an emergency fund of up to six months' expenses — to protect yourself from unexpected shocks.

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Article Sources

We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines.

Curvo (1); Macrotrends (2); Deutsche Bank Research (3),(5); The Northern Miner (4); World Gold Council (6); Mining.com (7); Sprott Asset Management (8)

This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.

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Source: “AOL Money”