Fantasy Baseball: 'Outliers exist in this game, and Cruz looks like one of them' — skill vs. luck verdicts for key hitters
Fantasy Baseball: 'Outliers exist in this game, and Cruz looks like one of them' — skill vs. luck verdicts for key hitters
Corbin YoungThu, April 30, 2026 at 3:07 PM UTC
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We examined several hitter skill and luck factors last week, including the mention of selling high on Munetaka Murakami, who probably hit another home run as you’re reading this. To identify the players to discuss, we’ll use the Yahoo player rater for the past two weeks to provide a small sample to choose from. Besides those hot hitters on the player rater, we’ll discuss other hitters generating plenty of buzz throughout the fantasy baseball community.
This piece includes two hitters performing well and two struggling players. Reach out if you have a player you would like me to examine on X/Twitter, @corbin_young21.
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Oneil Cruz, Pirates (98% Rostered)
Cruz is blazing hot to begin the 2026 season. His .349 BABIP boosts his batting average, as we saw in 2024. Interestingly, Cruz’s 2026 61.2% contact rate is the career low since his rookie season; it sits five percentage points below his career average (66.7%). That aligns with Cruz’s 17.9% swinging-strike rate, nearly four points above his career average (14.4%).
Like Cruz’s BABIP, his contact rate will likely regress closer to his career norms, though it’s below the concerning threshold of 70%. Speaking of luck factors like BABIP, Cruz’s 34.9% home run rate (HR/F) is over 14 percentage points above his career average (19.9%). Hitters like Cruz with elite power skills can sustain higher home run rates, so it’s within the range of outcomes. That said, Cruz’s career HR/F tends to be in the 90th percentile based on his power skills, so the 2026 HR/F likely regresses.
Source: “AOL Sports”
