Caribbean Travel During Hurricane Season? This Year's El Niño May Help You.

Jonathan Erdman Thu, April 30, 2026 at 5:41 PM UTC

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A Caribbean trip normally sounds risky during hurricane season. But this might be the year to book your plans and save money, thanks in large part to a developing El Niño.

The Caribbean's "Off Season"

The cheapest time of year to visit the Caribbean is from September through early November, encompassing parts of the hurricane season's typical peak. You might be able to save up to 50% on flights and resorts, according to Yahoo travel.

Then again, you might remember last October's Category 5 Hurricane Melissa, which hammered Jamaica, and opt to book another time of year, instead.

(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty ImagesWhy This Year?

According to NOAA's database, there have been 90 Caribbean hurricanes from 1966 through 2025, encompassing the Caribbean Sea and the islands from Cuba to the Lesser Antilles. That's an average of 1 to 2 hurricanes each year.

But meteorologists are forecasting a robust, possibly super, El Niño to develop during the 2026 hurricane season.

In general, El Niño tends to produce more hostile conditions for hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea.

As you can see in the graph below, only 13% of all Caribbean hurricanes occurred during El Niño hurricane seasons, according to NOAA's database.

And the super El Niño hurricane seasons since 1996 each failed to produce a single hurricane in the Caribbean.

(OUTLOOKS: Hurricane Season | El Niño)

Data: NOAA

The map below is particularly striking, showing the hurricane tracks (in red and pink) in the super El Niño hurricane seasons since 1966.

Note the complete dearth of hurricane tracks in the Caribbean Sea.

(MORE: How A Potential Super El Niño Could Affect Hurricane Tracks)

Data: NOAA/NHCThe Disclaimers

Sounds foolproof, right?

As always in the case of weather, there are disclaimers. Think of it as the "mice type" at the bottom of any contract.

It only takes one, even in an El Niño season.

Among the 12 Caribbean hurricanes during El Niño seasons were 2004's Ivan and 1969's Camille. Yeesh.

Those happened during weak El Niño seasons, however.

Hurricane Isidore loafed and lollygagged near Cancún in September 2002 during a moderate El Niño. Fifteen years before that, Hurricane Emily roared into the Dominican Republic in September 1987.

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The El Niño may not be as strong.

This seems pretty unlikely as of the time this article was written, but if the El Niño isn't so "super", it may be more uncertain to what extent it may keep a lid on Caribbean hurricane development.

Tropical depressions, storms can still develop.

It doesn't take an intense hurricane to soak your vacation.

Tropical storms, depressions, even unnamed tropical disturbances can still wring out heavy rain in an El Niño hurricane season.

The last super El Niño in 2015 squashed and fizzled Hurricane Danny by the time it reached the eastern Caribbean.

But the storm after that — Tropical Storm Erika — left devastating flooding in its wake in Dominica, killing at least 30, damaging and destroying at least 271 homes and many other roads and bridges on the island.

AP Photo/Carlisle Jno Baptiste

The rest of the Atlantic Basin may not be as quiet.

A stronger El Niño is often strongly suppressive in the Caribbean, but hurricanes can and have occurred elsewhere during those seasons.

In early October 2015, Hurricane Joaquin stalled and hammered the central Bahamas for days with devastating winds, storm surge and flooding rain.

And in 2023, during the last El Niño, Hurricane Idaliastill managed to strike Florida's Big Bend region at Category 3 intensity, killing five and causing an estimated $3.7 billion damage in the U.S.

AP Photo/Tim AylenOur Advice

Meteorologists can't guarantee that a tropical storm or hurricane won't threaten your Caribbean trip this summer or fall.

But, as we discussed above, there appears to be a significantly lower chance of Caribbean hurricanes this season.

Here are some general steps in planning a Caribbean trip during hurricane season:

1. Know the cancelation policies, including your resort, cruise and flight.

2. Consider buying travel insurance, as you might do for any other trip. Again, read the fine print of the policy to see how they would handle hurricanes.

3. Know how to evacuate your resort or hotel, if a storm threatens. That includes how to quickly get either far enough inland away from any storm surge zone or to leave a low-lying island.

4. Plan for potential extra days at sea or changes to ports of call if on a cruise. Your cruise ship will adjust its itinerary if a storm threatens. Just know that it could alter your plans in hurricane season, meaning you'd have to catch a later flight, etc.

And if you still can't stomach the risk, we have some even lower risk destinations during hurricane season here.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter), Threads and Facebook.

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